Samsung strategy to control no less than 50% of the market (not taking into account the Chinese manufacturers) does not require big number of models, but needs to embrace all price ranges (€35 to €350). This will happen in 2011 and afterwards we will see only the updated models as the old ones end their lifecycle. LG will follow Samsung and its portfolio will feature many dual SIM phones.
The main growth factor will be China and local manufacturers, because almost all phones come with two SIM cards. Their outward expansion will initially affect the emerging markets, where the operators are weak or cannot block the sales of such devices. Then we should not ignore the unofficial channels for phones distribution in all countries and if the operators do not fight with such handsets with the help of IMEI their spread will continue. The maximum capacity of any market for uncertified models hovers around 5% of sales (China is an exception). Officially or not European markets will target such indicators.
When the price of handsets with one or two radio modules is the same the Chinese manufacturers will always choose the second option. The similar approach has been also adopted by Fly and Philips. Major producers cannot follow this example. If they produce dual SIM phones in big numbers it will affect the sales of regular models. Neither Nokia nor Samsung are ready to do it. The competition will be confined to this limited 5% niche. Other players are unlikely to be active, for example Sony Ericsson is developing such a model (midmarket handset), but is not sure if there is enough demand.
The Chinese companies do not have such limitations and will try to use their advantage. They have other problems, because models from China cannot be certified in the majority of countries (as they use banned technologies, for example lead soldering), breach patent legislation at times, etc. To solve these issues the rapidly growing Chinese manufacturers will require at least 4 or 5 years. Until then they can enter only the emerging markets.
In terms of products the next breakthrough can be Android smartphones with two SIM cards offered by large manufacturers strong enough to attract attention and have good sales. Who will be the first - Samsung or HTC is still an open ended question. Both companies are weighing their options and see opportunities here. But it should not be expected in the near future.
In my opinion the segment of dual SIM phones will remain stable without any dramatic fluctuations of popularity. New models will become more feature rich, but this an evolutionary process. I hope that this article provided you with the necessary insight into the niche. If you like this material and would like to join the discussion, feel free to comment on our forum.
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