We emerge from the womb with fingers extended. Long before Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) were first introduced, engineers, product designers and users envisioned a simpler path to data than a keyboard or mouse. Yet merging touch screens with a marketable personal computer has proven to be the Achilles’ heel of many an early visionary. And while the touch revolution has smoldered for years, the movement was simply awaiting the right spark for ignition. Now, Apple Inc.’s iPad and the growing multitude of competitive slates are setting off a conflagration of touch, firing up not only the long-dormant tablet PC market but all-in-ones desktops and monitors as well.
The roots of this revolution are clearly visible in many of the early offerings. The PoqetPad of 1989 was less polished, yet similar to the ruggedized slate form factors of current Motion Computing and Panasonic offerings. The Apple Newtons of the early ‘90s and the IBM ThinkPad TransNote of 2001 offered different form factors, but none of these devices ever moved beyond niche status. Even as touch became ever more popular in industrial settings—machine interface, kiosks and Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs)—touch-enabled systems have never managed to push past 1 percent of global personal computer sales.
The early touch adopters—industrial, financial and medical markets—lit the pathway for touch penetration in the personal computer market, recognizing that if touch is the key, users still need a door. Thus, industrial products rely on menu screens, guiding users through a variety of options. Smart phones and the iPad have taken this same concept but moved well beyond the single-entry concept to offer users a wealth of doors, all accessible though a universal key—touch. The key to growth moving forward, for touch providers and branded product vendors alike, is going to be closely linked to those doors and what lies behind them.
Fast Growth in 2010
Touch demand has been growing in the personal computer market in recent years, increasing at a rate of more than 20 percent in 2008 and 2009, faster than the overall system market. Those growth rates are dwarfed by the expected 462 percent expansion in this market in 2010. Slate computers are the primary initial driver in the PC touch revolution, projected to grow from 3.8 percent of the PC touch market in 2009 to 56.2 percent in 2010 as the overall PC touch market triples in size.
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In many ways the majority of the initial slate offerings have more in common with smart phones than with their convertible tablet predecessors. Primarily consumption devices, they rely on mobile operating systems to provide instant-on and easy access to readily consumable content. Apple, as the early market leader, has clearly put substantial forethought into how to design its touch doors. That marriage of hardware design and seductive content is likely to keep Apple in the lead through the initial years of the slate market.
Clearing the Slate
Challenging Apple’s lead will take more than offering a less expensive alternative. Tomorrow’s market leader will need a mix of superior industrial design, compelling applications and an expanded touch interface—all of it delivered in an ever-more affordable package. Competitors are gearing up for a fight, though, as demonstrated by Hewlett-Packard’s recent acquisition of Palm Inc., Google Inc.’s acquisition of BumpTop, and the acquisition by Amazon.com of TouchCo.
Pre-iPad, most of the slate PCs on the market relied on either active digitizers or resistive screens for touch functionality. Projected capacitive screens, which only appeared in this market in 2008, had a very small share. As the select technology of the market leader, projected capacitive has now shot to the lead, eclipsing the competition. Digitizers and resistive markets are still growing, however; expect both of these as well as technologies still in the development stage to take growing shares of the market in the coming years, as vendors attempt to differentiate their products through function and cost.
Most of the current offerings are limited to two-finger touch, enabling users to touch, slide and easily expand or shrink images. While this represents a marked expansion of what users experience on your average ATM, it is a comparatively primitive version of the rapidly expanding touch universe.
Touching More
Controller and touch manufacturers are quickly moving beyond two touches to 10 or more, from recognizing a finger or pen to sensing the individual bristles of a paint brush. Discriminating between intentional and unintentional touches is critical for stylus use, rejecting the palm where it rests on the screen as an unintended touch while recognizing the stylus. Likewise, the border area on the current iPad can be eliminated with a more sophisticated touch solution that recognizes, and then ignores, the finger grip on the edge of the screen—while allowing the user to still access that area for intentional touches.
Pressure detection, demonstrated in products such as Stantum Inc.’s digital resistive touch solution, generates a different response depending on how firmly one presses on the screen. Haptics will provide feedback to users’ touches, emulating the feel of a button or the vibration of an explosion.
These and other developments will rapidly lure users into a touch environment. Indeed, slates are providing the most dramatic touch entry into the personal computer space, but all of the other markets—netbooks, notebooks, monitors and all-in-one computers—are embracing touch, albeit at a slower pace. And although early favorites in the touch technologies are emerging, the field remains wide open. Today’s market leaders in the personal computing space—projected capacitive in slates as well as optical imaging in monitors and all-in-ones—are recent entrants to the touch environment and are still vulnerable to established alternatives and technologies just now emerging onto the market.
The revolution has officially begun, and mice may soon be headed the way of the sailing ships of old.
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