Innovation Key to Semiconductor Revenue Stability Tweet

After the 2009 recession, the transition to 300mm wafers gets aggressive.

Although semiconductor revenue in 2010 is forecasted to rebound from a disastrous 2009 and expand by 15.4 percent, the key to sustainable growth can be summed up in one word: innovation, according to iSuppli Corp.

With spending forecasted to remain under pressure in 2010, the more innovative a product is, the more it will ultimately sell. Equipment manufacturers and silicon suppliers are relying on innovations in order to drive manufacturing in general, especially as they focus on next-generation technology.

Rising sales of innovative new products result in increased profit for all parties involved. However, for the semiconductor manufacturing industry, innovation also is key to achieving the transition to 300mm wafers. iSuppli forecasts that total silicon demand in 2010 will increase by 17.4 percent. However, 300mm silicon demand will increase by 27.2 percent. This is in stark contrast to 2009, when demand for silicon declined by 11.1 percent.

iSuppli forecasts that 300mm wafers will reach 6.1 billion total square inches of silicon manufactured by 2013, rising at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.4 percent from 3.6 billion total square inches in 2008. In contrast, 200mm wafers will shrink to 2.7 billion total square inches of silicon manufactured, with a negative CAGR of 2 percent, down from 3.0 billion total square inches of silicon manufactured in 2008.

With the economic situation improving and a normal growth cycle emerging, companies will be more inclined to increase orders for silicon. However, the key questions remain:

* What is the pattern of shipments?
* What technologies will drive silicon shipments?
* What effect will the transition to 300mm silicon have on the other wafer sizes?

iSuppli will continue to monitor these situations as 2010 progresses.

Post-Recessionary Transitions
Several things tend to occur in the semiconductor manufacturing world after a recession—and the post-2009 downturn period will be no different.

For instance, after the recession of 2001, the semiconductor industry saw the beginning of three major technical transitions: the reduction in lithography to 0.13-micron, the incorporation of a new metallization scheme and the transition to 300mm wafers. At that time, it was clear that 6-inch wafers were no longer in demand as manufacturers shifted to the most cost-effective 200mm and 300mm variety.

In a more recent example, the semiconductor industry after the recession of 2009 clearly embraced 300mm manufacturing by transitioning 50 percent of all manufacturing to these large wafers. Just as 150mm wafers lost favor following the 2001 recession, iSuppli believes that 200mm wafers will go out of style during the post-2009 downturn. The aggressive transition to 300mm wafers will continue to put pressure on silicon manufacturers, resulting from companies not having recouped their investment in 200mm tooling.

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