China in 2009 produced more than 3.6 Gigawatts (GW) of Photovoltaic (PV) cells—90 percent of which were shipped to the international market—making the country the world’s leading solar exporter for the year, according to iSuppli Corp.
Six of the Top 10 global PV cell makers in 2009 were based in China, accounting for the high production from the region. At the same time, the Chinese government is moving to stimulate domestic demand. China’s Solar Roof and Golden Sun Projects, which began in March of 2009, are designed to encourage domestic investors and the manufacturers of PV power stations to turn internally for growth.
PV on a Hot Tin Roof
Under the Solar Roof Project, pertinent firms will be entitled to subsidies of $2.9 per watt—an amount that can cover 30 percent to 50 percent of the manufacturing cost. The Ministry of Finance has already appropriated $186 million for the project, in which 70 percent of the subsidy—or $130 million—is dedicated to the initiation of installations, while the remaining 30 percent—or $56 million—is to be allocated after the project construction is checked and accepted.
Land of the Golden Sun
In comparison, the Golden Sun Project encompasses wider applications, covering not only the photovoltaic power distribution system on roofs but also other area such as standalone and grid PV systems. Moreover, the Golden Sun Project is more aggressive on subsidies, targeting 50 percent to 70 percent of the overall investment cost at general construction projects and remote areas.
iSuppli believes that these two stimulus programs will result in about 2.8GW of domestic installations during the next three years, drawing interest from Chinese PV firms. Furthermore, these stimulus projects will mark the beginning of a larger subsidy program to come in the future.
Growing Faster than Planned
Many say that the Chinese domestic PV power installation market grew faster than the government had planed. The original proposal called for PV power installations to reach 300 Megawatts (MW) in 2010 and grow to 1.8GW by 2020. But with 120MW of new photovoltaic systems installed in 2009 alone, cumulative PV installations for China had already surpassed the 300MW level set in 2009—one year earlier than previously scheduled.
Nonetheless, when one compares the production capacity plans and export shipments of Chinese PV firms with the ambitious benchmarks established by the Chinese government—the government plan appears less aggressive than that of firms producing PV components.
One of the most critical issues resides with the connection of the PV power system with the other power grids inside China. Because of concerns about overall stability and safety, the grid system has its own development schedule, which includes other power sources such as coal, wind and nuclear energy. Thus, a significant issue for China’s smart grid projects will revolve around how to adjust the system in order to account for this new power to be brought online in the region.
Driving Demand
iSuppli forecasts that the revenue generated by China’s photovoltaic electronics market will reach $309 million in 2010, increasing 95.3 percent annually from 2009. Figure 8 presents iSuppli’s forecast for China’s PV electronics revenues for the period of 2008 through 2014.
To this end, the strong growth of the PV market is driving demand for electronics devices such as inverters, which are critical for achieving efficiency in photovoltaic modules or panels.
As the government subsidy plan peaks in 2010, the PV electronics market will also be cresting at the same time. And despite the projected decline of annual growth rates for the next three years—unless new policies are enacted—the market will continue to be strong enough to realize revenue of $2.4 billion by 2014.
Labels: Miscellaneous
0 comments:
Post a Comment